VAEP – Valuing Actions by Estimating Probabilities in Football

In the ever-evolving landscape of football analytics, the need for deeper, context-rich evaluation of player actions has given rise to a new wave of advanced metrics. One of the most influential frameworks in this domain is VAEP—short for Valuing Actions by Estimating Probabilities. Developed by Dutch analytics company SciSports, VAEP provides a nuanced method for quantifying the true value of every on-ball action in a football match.

But what exactly is VAEP, how does it work, and why does it matter? Let’s explore.

What Is VAEP?

VAEP is a probabilistic model that evaluates how a player’s action affects the team’s chances of scoring or conceding in the near future. It looks beyond basic statistics like goals and assists to capture the broader influence of actions such as passes, dribbles, interceptions, and clearances.

Each action is assigned a VAEP value, based on its positive or negative impact on two key probabilities:

The probability of scoring a goal
The probability of conceding a goal

This means VAEP can value a defensive midfielder’s interception just as meaningfully as a forward’s shot assist—both are judged by their influence on a team’s likelihood of success in the coming phase of play.

How Does VAEP Work?

The core of the VAEP model is this equation:

VAEP = Δ(Scoring Probability) – Δ(Conceding Probability)

For each action in a possession sequence, the model calculates:

What was the likelihood of scoring before the action?
What was the likelihood of scoring after the action?
What was the likelihood of conceding before and after?

Example:

A progressive pass that breaks the opponent’s midfield line and moves the ball closer to goal might add +0.05 to the scoring probability and –0.01 to the conceding probability.
→ VAEP = 0.05 – (–0.01) = +0.06
A misplaced back pass that leads to a counterattack might increase the chance of conceding and decrease the chance of scoring.
→ VAEP = –0.03 – (+0.02) = –0.05

These values are small, but over a 90-minute match—or across a full season—they can clearly show which players consistently increase their team’s chances of winning.

What Types of Actions Are Measured?

VAEP values all on-ball actions, including:

Passes (forward, backward, lateral)
Carries and dribbles
Tackles and interceptions
Clearances
Shot attempts
Ball recoveries and losses

The model evaluates each action in context, taking into account field position, pressure, match situation, and follow-up events.

Why VAEP Matters

1. Total Player Value

VAEP reveals which players contribute value throughout all phases of play—not just in final third moments. This is essential for evaluating defenders, deep midfielders, or even fullbacks who don’t register many assists or goals.

2. Uncovering Under-the-Radar Talent

Some players don’t rack up flashy statistics but still provide high value in possession. VAEP helps clubs identify these individuals, which is crucial for scouting and recruitment.

3. Action-Level Clarity

Traditional stats give you season totals. VAEP tells you the value of each action, making it easier to analyze player decisions and tactical efficiency.

4. Data-Driven Coaching

Coaches can use VAEP insights to emphasize effective patterns of play—like line-breaking passes or efficient press-breaking carries—based on their actual impact on match outcomes.

Who Uses VAEP?

SciSports, the creators of VAEP, offer this model through platforms like SciSports Insight, used by clubs across Europe and beyond for:

Scouting and recruitment
Performance analysis
Player development tracking

Clubs that embrace data-informed decision-making often integrate VAEP into broader metrics like xOVA (Expected Offensive Value Added), xT (Expected Threat), or custom possession value models.

Limitations of VAEP

While this is one of the most advanced publicly known models, it has a few limitations:

It only values on-ball actions, meaning off-ball movements, positioning, or pressing efforts aren’t included.
It relies heavily on accurate event data and contextual understanding, which can vary between providers.
Interpreting VAEP values requires some expertise—raw numbers alone don’t tell the full story.

As with all advanced metrics, VAEP is most powerful when used alongside video analysis and other contextual data.

Final Thoughts

VAEP represents a breakthrough in how we evaluate footballers. Rather than relying on highlight reels or simple statistics, it asks: How does this action change the game? That question—and VAEP’s ability to answer it—makes it a vital tool for anyone serious about football analysis, from scouts and coaches to data analysts and fans.

As football continues to evolve, metrics like VAEP will help shape a more accurate, insightful, and fair understanding of player performance—one action at a time.