Football has always struggled to measure influence. Goals and assists tell us who finished actions, but they rarely explain how teams actually moved closer to scoring over the course of a match. Many of the most important contributions happen far away from the penalty area and long before a shot is taken. On-Ball Value (OBV) exists to put numbers on those moments.
OBV is a possession-based metric that tries to answer a simple question:
Did this action make the situation better or worse for the team in possession?
Rather than counting what players do, it focuses on what their actions change within a possession.
What OBV Measures and How It Works
On-Ball Value assigns a numerical value to every on-ball action, whether it is a pass, a carry, a dribble, a shot, or a loss of possession. Each action is evaluated by comparing the game state before and after it occurs. If the action improves the team’s attacking prospects, it receives a positive value. If it reduces them or increases risk, the value turns negative.
This is why OBV is not impressed by volume. A sideways pass under no pressure might look tidy, but it often adds very little. A forward carry that breaks a line or moves the ball into the final third can add far more, even if it does not lead directly to a shot. Over time, OBV builds a picture of how a player progresses play and makes decisions, rather than how often they are involved.
In simple terms, OBV rewards actions that:
- Move the ball into more dangerous areas
- Improve the team’s attacking structure
- Maintain possession under pressure
And it penalises actions that:
- Slow attacks unnecessarily
- Lose possession cheaply
- Increase the risk of conceding in transition
These values accumulate over a match, allowing analysts to see who consistently improves the team’s situation on the ball.
Why OBV Is Useful
Where OBV really proves its value is in highlighting influence that traditional statistics miss. Midfielders who consistently move the ball forward, defenders who step into midfield with the ball, or fullbacks who advance play into valuable wide zones often score well, even if they rarely appear on the scoresheet.
At the same time, OBV helps separate activity from effectiveness. Some players are constantly involved but drain value from attacks by forcing actions or losing the ball. Others touch the ball less often but improve the team’s position almost every time they do. OBV makes that difference visible and measurable.
It also fits naturally alongside other metrics rather than replacing them. Expected goals tell you how good a shot was. OBV helps explain how the team arrived at that shot in the first place. Used together, they give a far clearer picture of attacking performance across the entire possession.
How OBV Should Be Used
Like any advanced metric, OBV should not be read in isolation. It does not capture off-ball movement, defensive positioning, or tactical instructions from the coach. The quality of the data and the model behind it also matters.
That said, OBV becomes very powerful when combined with video analysis. It can point analysts toward players, moments, or patterns that deserve closer attention, and it often helps explain why certain performances felt dominant or ineffective beyond the final scoreline. Used properly, OBV shifts the focus away from isolated outcomes and toward how consistently possession is turned into an advantage.
Conclusion
On-Ball Value offers a more honest way of thinking about impact in football. By evaluating how each on-ball action changes the situation, it captures progression, decision-making, and territorial improvement in ways traditional statistics struggle to do.
In a game where most value is created before the final action, OBV helps explain what actually drives performance — and why some players matter far more than their goal totals suggest.